This year’s Farnborough Airshow could be memorable, not only for its planned line up of industry debuts but also for the air of uncertainty that surrounds the future of Britain in the European Union.
With an aviation sector worth £65 billion ($91.8 billion), British and European aerospace leaders are keenly monitoring the June 23 referendum on whether to exit the EU.
A vote to remain should mean business as usual at Europe’s biggest aviation trade show. However, a vote to leave—a so-called Brexit—will plunge the U.K. and much of Europe into the unknown and could shroud the event.
And yet, while the show is not likely to buzz with the commercial orders seen at other shows of late, increases in defence spending across Europe will likely make the venue a valuable showcase for that sector, with important debuts from the Lockheed Martin F-35Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) as well as Embraer’s KC-390 airlifter. The same company is also considering sending its 190-E2 regional airliner test aircraft.
Farnborough will be the first air show with both the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737MAX on display together. Bombardier’s C Series is expected, too; engine problems prevented it from making the journey in 2014. Also performing in the flying display will be Antonov’s An-178 twin-engine airlifter.
Britain’s Hybrid Air Vehicles hopes its Airlander 10 hybrid airship can take part in the daily flybys. This depends on its ongoing ground testing.
Airbus may use the show to launch a highly anticipated stretched version of the A350. The manufacturer says it is “optimistic” it will do so.
In recent years, it has become fairly routine to hold off announcing very big orders or key information about pending projects until a major air show. The size of the orders led to discussions of how quickly and to what extent production should be extended. But now that orders have been signed and production decisions made, Airbus President/CEO Fabrice Bregier’s answer may well become illustrative of an in-between-phases event.
Because of the huge backlogs in place, it is safe to assume that Farnborough will be relatively quiet on the order front—particularly for narrowbody aircraft—given that Airbus and Boeing are essentially sold out for now. Customers needing more aircraft quickly must turn to the leasing market.
To regain trust with customers and investors, Airbus, Boeing and their suppliers will have to demonstrate they are industrially capable of delivering on their promises. Airbus and Pratt & Whitney have jointly endured a highly vexatious introduction of the A320neo; only seven had been delivered by mid-June because of cooling issues affecting thePW1100G geared turbofan. The pressure is now on to recover and catch up on deliveries in the second half of the year.
Product strategy will also be in the forefront. Sales of the Airbus A350-1000 have been sluggish and are likely to stay that way until Airbus decides whether to stretch the aircraft further and build the 400-seat variant that sales chief John Leahy has begun calling the A350-2000. He is rooting for a quick decision because the delay is an impediment to his A350 sales campaigns. An A350-2000 would compete better with the Boeing 777-9X, which, Leahy asserts, has grown in size compared to the 777-300ER only because Boeing wanted to pare unit cost.
Such strategic questions are less of an issue for the A330/A330neo. Late-production A330s have been marketed successfully, and A330neo development appears to be on track. But the aircraft’s maximum take-off weight may be increased to improve its payload/range performance vis-a-vis the Boeing 787-9.
The U.S. manufacturer is trying to find buyers for its end-of-line 777s ahead of the transition to the 777X. But most important, given the slow sales of some 737 MAX-family members, Boeing may launch a further stretch version of the aircraft that uses the CFM International Leap 1A engine developed for the A320neo. Discussions about a 757-size New Midsize Airplane are ongoing, but Boeing is postponing until next year a decision about continuing the program.
The F-35 is set to make its second attempt at a U.K. debut; engine problems prevented it from crossing the Atlantic in 2014. The Royal International Air Tattoo at RAF Fairford and Farnborough will be latecomers to hosting the JSF. The Dutch won the debut distinction when the Dutch F-35 appeared at the Royal Netherlands Air Force Open Dagen event on June 10-11. The F-35’s appearance is crucial given the U.K.’s share in the program. As a Tier 1 partner, it produces 15% of each aircraft. Britain has committed to its full complement of 138 aircraft.
Five F-35s are scheduled to make the trip across the Atlantic, three short-take-off-and-vertical-landing F-35Bs from the U.S. Marine Corps (and possibly one British version) will be joined by two U.S. Air Force F-35As at the Royal International Air Tattoo at RAF Fairford on July 8-10. However, the USAF recently confirmed that the F-35As will not make an appearance at Farnborough.
The U.K. defence sector is set to fare well at the show. Sources suggest that at least two and possibly three significant procurement contracts could be signed. Among them is the controversial Foreign Military Sale (FMS) for nine Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, which critics have denounced as damaging to British industry. The program could be valued at around £1.55 billion, according documents released by the Defence Ministry, significantly less than the $3.2 billion cited by the U.S. Defence Security Cooperation Agency in late March.
A deal to refurbish Britain’s Apache attack helicopter fleet could also be signed. Valued at £2 billion, the arrangement has been hotly contested by Boeing and Leonardo-Finmeccanica but is widely expected to go Boeing’s way via an FMS route in which the U.K. benefits from the U.S. Army’s multiyear contract. The Italian company is likely to benefit from sustainment of the future fleet, however.
BAE Systems is expected to reveal more detail about Anglo-French plans for a joint unmanned combat air system (UCAS) demonstrator. The €2 billion ($2.4 billion) program intends to carry out full-scale development of what companies describe as UCAS Operationally Representative Demonstrators by 2025, with the goal of producing an operational system ready for use beyond 2030. Hints are rife that the configuration of the demonstrator may be revealed during Farnborough.
Officials from Russia’s Rosoboronexport say they are undecided about whether to attend the show this year, and it has been reported that Russian space agency Roscosmos will not exhibit. As in previous years, Northrop Grumman will not attend, and Leonardo-Finmeccanica will have a smaller presence compared with previous years, as it scales back exhibition spending.
Approximately 67% of the exhibitors are from outside the U.K., and five new international pavilions have been established for Austria, Brazil, China, Ireland and South Korea.
Air displays, a crowd favourite, may be diminished this year. The death of 11 people following the crash of a Hawker Hunter jet at a British air show last August is having a radical impact on the aerial displays performed at Farnborough—one of the most urban air show sites in the U.K.
The steps to halt air displays over urban areas have resulted in redesigned airspace that will see many such events moved to the northwest of the airfield—noticeably more distant from crowds than in previous years. And the RAF’s acclaimed Red Arrows aerobatic team will be limited to flybys only. The team is planning to perform mixed formations featuring the F-35, A400M and A350. Other show-safety enhancements include road closures at the western end of the airfield during air displays and increased security of areas outside the airfield where people gather to watch.
With an aviation sector worth £65 billion ($91.8 billion), British and European aerospace leaders are keenly monitoring the June 23 referendum on whether to exit the EU.
A vote to remain should mean business as usual at Europe’s biggest aviation trade show. However, a vote to leave—a so-called Brexit—will plunge the U.K. and much of Europe into the unknown and could shroud the event.
And yet, while the show is not likely to buzz with the commercial orders seen at other shows of late, increases in defence spending across Europe will likely make the venue a valuable showcase for that sector, with important debuts from the Lockheed Martin F-35Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) as well as Embraer’s KC-390 airlifter. The same company is also considering sending its 190-E2 regional airliner test aircraft.
Farnborough will be the first air show with both the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737MAX on display together. Bombardier’s C Series is expected, too; engine problems prevented it from making the journey in 2014. Also performing in the flying display will be Antonov’s An-178 twin-engine airlifter.
Britain’s Hybrid Air Vehicles hopes its Airlander 10 hybrid airship can take part in the daily flybys. This depends on its ongoing ground testing.
Airbus may use the show to launch a highly anticipated stretched version of the A350. The manufacturer says it is “optimistic” it will do so.
In recent years, it has become fairly routine to hold off announcing very big orders or key information about pending projects until a major air show. The size of the orders led to discussions of how quickly and to what extent production should be extended. But now that orders have been signed and production decisions made, Airbus President/CEO Fabrice Bregier’s answer may well become illustrative of an in-between-phases event.
Because of the huge backlogs in place, it is safe to assume that Farnborough will be relatively quiet on the order front—particularly for narrowbody aircraft—given that Airbus and Boeing are essentially sold out for now. Customers needing more aircraft quickly must turn to the leasing market.
To regain trust with customers and investors, Airbus, Boeing and their suppliers will have to demonstrate they are industrially capable of delivering on their promises. Airbus and Pratt & Whitney have jointly endured a highly vexatious introduction of the A320neo; only seven had been delivered by mid-June because of cooling issues affecting thePW1100G geared turbofan. The pressure is now on to recover and catch up on deliveries in the second half of the year.
Product strategy will also be in the forefront. Sales of the Airbus A350-1000 have been sluggish and are likely to stay that way until Airbus decides whether to stretch the aircraft further and build the 400-seat variant that sales chief John Leahy has begun calling the A350-2000. He is rooting for a quick decision because the delay is an impediment to his A350 sales campaigns. An A350-2000 would compete better with the Boeing 777-9X, which, Leahy asserts, has grown in size compared to the 777-300ER only because Boeing wanted to pare unit cost.
Such strategic questions are less of an issue for the A330/A330neo. Late-production A330s have been marketed successfully, and A330neo development appears to be on track. But the aircraft’s maximum take-off weight may be increased to improve its payload/range performance vis-a-vis the Boeing 787-9.
The U.S. manufacturer is trying to find buyers for its end-of-line 777s ahead of the transition to the 777X. But most important, given the slow sales of some 737 MAX-family members, Boeing may launch a further stretch version of the aircraft that uses the CFM International Leap 1A engine developed for the A320neo. Discussions about a 757-size New Midsize Airplane are ongoing, but Boeing is postponing until next year a decision about continuing the program.
The F-35 is set to make its second attempt at a U.K. debut; engine problems prevented it from crossing the Atlantic in 2014. The Royal International Air Tattoo at RAF Fairford and Farnborough will be latecomers to hosting the JSF. The Dutch won the debut distinction when the Dutch F-35 appeared at the Royal Netherlands Air Force Open Dagen event on June 10-11. The F-35’s appearance is crucial given the U.K.’s share in the program. As a Tier 1 partner, it produces 15% of each aircraft. Britain has committed to its full complement of 138 aircraft.
Five F-35s are scheduled to make the trip across the Atlantic, three short-take-off-and-vertical-landing F-35Bs from the U.S. Marine Corps (and possibly one British version) will be joined by two U.S. Air Force F-35As at the Royal International Air Tattoo at RAF Fairford on July 8-10. However, the USAF recently confirmed that the F-35As will not make an appearance at Farnborough.
The U.K. defence sector is set to fare well at the show. Sources suggest that at least two and possibly three significant procurement contracts could be signed. Among them is the controversial Foreign Military Sale (FMS) for nine Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, which critics have denounced as damaging to British industry. The program could be valued at around £1.55 billion, according documents released by the Defence Ministry, significantly less than the $3.2 billion cited by the U.S. Defence Security Cooperation Agency in late March.
A deal to refurbish Britain’s Apache attack helicopter fleet could also be signed. Valued at £2 billion, the arrangement has been hotly contested by Boeing and Leonardo-Finmeccanica but is widely expected to go Boeing’s way via an FMS route in which the U.K. benefits from the U.S. Army’s multiyear contract. The Italian company is likely to benefit from sustainment of the future fleet, however.
BAE Systems is expected to reveal more detail about Anglo-French plans for a joint unmanned combat air system (UCAS) demonstrator. The €2 billion ($2.4 billion) program intends to carry out full-scale development of what companies describe as UCAS Operationally Representative Demonstrators by 2025, with the goal of producing an operational system ready for use beyond 2030. Hints are rife that the configuration of the demonstrator may be revealed during Farnborough.
Officials from Russia’s Rosoboronexport say they are undecided about whether to attend the show this year, and it has been reported that Russian space agency Roscosmos will not exhibit. As in previous years, Northrop Grumman will not attend, and Leonardo-Finmeccanica will have a smaller presence compared with previous years, as it scales back exhibition spending.
Approximately 67% of the exhibitors are from outside the U.K., and five new international pavilions have been established for Austria, Brazil, China, Ireland and South Korea.
Air displays, a crowd favourite, may be diminished this year. The death of 11 people following the crash of a Hawker Hunter jet at a British air show last August is having a radical impact on the aerial displays performed at Farnborough—one of the most urban air show sites in the U.K.
The steps to halt air displays over urban areas have resulted in redesigned airspace that will see many such events moved to the northwest of the airfield—noticeably more distant from crowds than in previous years. And the RAF’s acclaimed Red Arrows aerobatic team will be limited to flybys only. The team is planning to perform mixed formations featuring the F-35, A400M and A350. Other show-safety enhancements include road closures at the western end of the airfield during air displays and increased security of areas outside the airfield where people gather to watch.
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